2021 End of the Year Control State Results

2021 END-OF-YEAR RESULTS

During 2021 nine-liter case Spirits sales in the control states grew at 4.6% compared with 2020's 7.7% and 2019's 3.8%. The control states reported the following nine-liter case growth rates: Alabama 5.9% (vs. 11.1% during 2020), Iowa 3.1% (vs. 10.7%), Idaho 1.7% (vs. 13.7%), Montgomery County Maryland 3.6% (vs. -2.6%), Maine 3.9% (vs. 7.6%), Michigan -0.3% (vs. 11.6%), Mississippi 1.9% (vs. 18.7%), Montana 4.1% (vs. 11.6%), North Carolina 5.1% (vs. 12.6%), New Hampshire -0.8% (vs. 0.3%), Ohio 3.5% (vs. 9.7%), Oregon 0.6% (vs. 7.1%), Pennsylvania 20.8% (vs. -8.5%), Utah 2.3% (vs. 9.0%), Virginia 1.4% (vs. 10.7%), Vermont 1.6% (vs. 8.3%), West Virginia 2.0% (vs. 13.5%), Wyoming 3.1% (vs. 10.4%). 

Shelf Dollars grew at 9.8% compared with 2020's 13.3% and 2019's 6.3%. The control states reported the following shelf dollar growth rates: Alabama 10.0% (vs. 16.8% during 2020), Iowa 7.8% (vs. 13.6%), Idaho 7.4% (vs. 18.3%), Montgomery County Maryland 8.7% (vs. 1.7%), Maine 9.4% (vs. 10.9%), Michigan 4.2% (vs. 21.5%), Mississippi 7.6% (vs. 25.1%), Montana 9.1% (vs. 14.2%), North Carolina 12.1% (vs. 18.0%), New Hampshire 4.5% (vs. 2.5%), Ohio 10.2% (vs. 17.5%), Oregon 6.5% (vs. 11.4%), Pennsylvania 25.0% (vs. -5.9%), Utah 6.4% (vs. 11.4%), Virginia 7.2% (vs. 16.5%), Vermont 6.7% (vs. 10.3%), West Virginia 5.8% (vs. 16.0%), Wyoming 6.8% (vs. 12.0%).

Control State annual Price/Mix for 2021 is 5.2%, down from 2020's reported 5.6%.

2021's 4.6% Spirits volumetric growth rate, the second-highest annual growth rate reported this century, second to 2020's 7.7%, substantially exceeds the Control States' twenty-two-year average growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%. 2021's Shelf Dollar growth rate of 9.8% is also the second-highest annual growth rate reported this century, second to 2020's 13.3%, substantially exceeding the Control States' twenty-one-year average growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%.

During 2021 the Control States reported Spirits sales of more than 62 million nine-liter cases with a shelf dollar value of $12,900,000,000. These are annual high-water marks for the Control States.

Cocktail's 38.5% annual nine-liter case growth rate outpaced all other categories during 2021, while nine-liter case sales of Tequila, Irish Whiskey, and Cordials grew at 23.7%, 13.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. The Control States reported the following growth rates for the spirits categories for 2021: Brandy/Cognac -4.4% (vs. 14.4% for 2020), Canadian Whiskey 0.5% (vs. 6.9%), Cocktails 38.5% (vs. 40.6%), Cordials 11.5% (vs. 4.3%), Domestic Whiskey 4.3% (vs. 11.9%), Gin 0.1% (vs. 1.9%), Irish Whiskey 13.4% (vs. 4.8%), Rum 0.7% (vs. 2.8%), Scotch 1.4% (vs. 2.1%), Tequila 23.7% (vs. 21.0%), and Vodka 0.7% (vs. 3.4%). Cordials, Irish Whiskey, and Tequila grew at rates exceeding their 2020 growth rates. 
During 2021 the Central Control States (Iowa, Montgomery County Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia) grew volumes at 6.6% (vs. 4.9% during 2020), the Southern Control States (Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Virginia) reported volume growth of 3.7% (vs. 12.5%), the NorthWest Control States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming) reported 1.7% (vs. 9.3%), and the NorthEast Control States (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont) reported 0.9% (vs. 3.4%). The four regions grew shelf dollars at the following rates: Central at 11.3% (vs. 11.6% during 2020), Southern at 9.6% (vs 17.9%), NorthWest at 6.9% (vs. 12.8%), and NorthEast at 6.3% (vs. 5.9%).
2021's nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -3.1% (vs. 3.1% during 2020). Pennsylvania reporting -3.3% nine-liter case growth for wines (vs. 1.1% during 2020), New Hampshire reporting -1.8% (vs. 3.4%), Mississippi reporting -3.4% (vs. 16.4%), Utah reporting -3.2% (vs. 4.7%), Montgomery County Maryland reporting -6.2% (vs. -0.8%), and Wyoming reporting -4.4% (vs. 7.4%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. The collective annual growth rates for wines in these states have been -3.1%, 3.1%, and -1.8% during 2021, 2020, and 2019, respectively.

DECEMBER 2021 END-OF-MONTH RESULTS

During December nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 4.2% over same period sales last year, mirroring last December 2020's growth rate. Idaho(2.0%), Montgomery County Maryland(16.6%), Michigan(7.4%), Mississippi(15.0%), North Carolina(5.7%), Oregon(3.9%), Utah(7.7%), Vermont(5.4%), and West Virginia(7.2%) reported monthly growth rates for December exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama(4.2%), Iowa(0.3%), Maine(-1.0%), Montana(-10.3%), New Hampshire(-2.7%), Ohio(3.3%), Pennsylvania(10.5%), Virginia(-4.5%), and Wyoming(-3.4%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 4.6%, is flat with November's reported 4.6%. Spirits' volumes are growing 4.6% year-to-date compared to 7.7% a year ago.

During December more than 6,200,000 nine-liter cases of spirits were sold in the control states. The sale of six million cases of spirits in one month is a high-water mark not previously attained by the control states.

December's 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the fourth highest (tied with Aug 2021, Oct 2021, and Nov 2021) recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (5.4%, 5.3%, 5.5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 5.3%) are higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (4.0, 3.9%, 4.3%, 4.6%, 4.5%, 4.7%). The 22-year control state average growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% suggests that the last six 3-year growth periods are above average.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 8.9% during December while trending at 9.8% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland(20.2%), Michigan(10.7%), Mississippi(25.1%), North Carolina(13.4%), Oregon(9.2%), Utah(10.9%), Vermont(10.6%), and West Virginia(10.8%) reported monthly growth rates for December exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(9.4%), Iowa(3.3%), Idaho(6.8%), Maine(5.3%), Montana(-3.8%), New Hampshire(0.8%), Ohio(8.2%), Pennsylvania(14.5%), Virginia(-0.7%), and Wyoming(-1.9%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 9.8% year-to-date compared to 13.3% last December.

Price/Mix for December is 4.7%, up from November's reported 4.3%.

Premiumization continues to sustain Price/Mix values calculated for the control states at levels above those calculated pre-COVID (2.3%). December's median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set retail price points continued to be reported at historically high levels; the median price was $25.72, and the weighted average price was $19.07. During 2020's December these prices were $24.99 and $18.21, respectively. During 2019's December they were $24.00 and $17.24.

December's control states growth rate was effected primarily by pandemic related phenomena.

• Utah, with 3% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 28 days this December compared to 27 days last year, artificially inflating sales and skewing control state results. Utah had one more selling day during this year's December.
• On net, there was 1 more selling day during December in the control states compared to last year.
•  After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year's December, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 4.2% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 3.9% and YTD growth of 3.9%. December's shelf-dollar growth rate is 8.9% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 9.1% and YTD growth of 9.1%.
• Equivalized price/mix for December is 4.7%

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was December's fastest growing category with 31.0% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.5%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 27.2% during December and 23.7% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at 1.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Gin(2.3% during December, 0.1% twelve-month trend), Tequila(27.2%, 23.7%), and Vodka(1.8%, 0.7%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends, while those reported for Brandy/Cognac(-4.8%, -4.4%), Canadian Whiskey(-2.3%, 0.5%), Cocktails(31.0%, 38.5%), Cordials(7.3%, 11.5%), Domestic Whiskey(4.0%, 4.3%), Irish Whiskey(-0.1%, 13.4%), Rum(0.4%, 0.7%), and Scotch(0.6%, 1.4%) fell short.

December's nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -4.8%. Pennsylvania (reporting -5.1% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (1.0%), Mississippi (-18.2%), Utah (0.8%), Montgomery County Maryland (-2.4%), and Wyoming (-11.0%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –3.1%, down from November's reported -2.6%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.