Control State Results for July 2021

During July nine-liter control states spirits case sales fell 2.3%, a depressed growth rate effected by a double whammy delivered by an imposing (16.0%) comp and calendar effects, over same period sales last year. Montgomery County Maryland(12.2%), Utah(4.5%), and Vermont(6.1%) reported monthly growth rates for July exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama(2.0%), Iowa(-0.8%), Idaho(1.1%), Maine(2.3%), Michigan(-22.0%), Mississippi(-10.5%), Montana(0.0%), North Carolina(8.1%), New Hampshire(-7.7%), Ohio(2.1%), Oregon(-1.6%), Pennsylvania(8.4%), Virginia(2.1%), West Virginia(-3.1%), and Wyoming(-6.6%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 6.7%, slipped from June’s reported 8.3%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 6.0% year-to-date compared to 7.7% a year ago.

July’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.4%, is the second highest recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (4.9%, 4.8%, 5.2%, 5.2%, 5.6%, 5.4%) are strikingly higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (3.1%, 3.2%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.5%). The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% demonstrates that the last six 3-year growth periods are significantly above the average.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 0.9% during July while trending at 13.4% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland(19.6%), Utah(8.9%), and Vermont(13.5%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(6.3%), Iowa(2.2%), Idaho(5.6%), Maine(7.1%), Michigan(-19.1%), Mississippi(-6.8%), Montana(-0.9%), North Carolina(12.7%), New Hampshire(-10.5%), Ohio(7.3%), Oregon(3.8%), Pennsylvania(9.7%), Virginia(7.6%), West Virginia(0.1%), and Wyoming(-5.1%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 12.7% year-to-date compared to 12.4% last July.

Premiumization continues to drive Price/Mix in the control states. During July 2021, the median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set the retail price point continued to be reported at historically high levels. During July, the median price was $24.96, and the weighted average price was $17.44. During last year’s July, these prices were $24.05 and $16.78, respectively. 

Price/Mix for July is 3.2%, down from June’s reported 5.1%.

July’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related residual phenomena.

• Michigan, with 15% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 28 days this July compared to 35 days last year, artificially deflating sales growth and skewing control state results. Michigan had seven fewer selling days during this year’s July.
• New Hampshire, with 4% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 31 days this July compared to 33 days last year, artificially deflating sales growth and skewing control state results.  New Hampshire had two fewer selling days during this year’s July.
• Utah, with 3% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 25 days this July compared to 26 days last year, artificially deflating sales growth and skewing control state results. Utah had one fewer selling day during this year’s July.
• Six control states (Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming) report calendar month sales and are wholesale only, i.e., they have no state stores or agencies. Michigan is also wholesale only but reports four- or five-week fiscal period sales. These seven states ship to licensees Monday through Friday.
• NABCA reports shipments from the warehouses as sales for all wholesale only control states. This  July’s calendar had twenty-one shipping days compared to twenty-two last year, 4.5% fewer.
• On net, there were 10 fewer selling days during July in the control states, 2% fewer, compared to last year.
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s July, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 1.9% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 6.0%. July’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 5.7% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 12.6%.
• Equivalized price/mix for July is 3.8%.

Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was July’s fastest growing category with 31.8% reported and a twelve-month trend of 37.1%. Irish Whiskey, with 2% share, grew during July at 16.1% and 13.8% during the past twelve months. Tequila, with 8% share, grew at 9.2% during July and 25.6% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -5.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Irish Whiskey(16.1% during July, 13.8% twelve-month trend) grew at a rate above its twelve-month trend, while Brandy/Cognac(-19.0%, 7.4%), Canadian Whiskey(-7.3%, 4.0%), Cocktails(31.8%, 37.1%), Cordials(2.2%, 12.1%), Domestic Whiskey(-0.1%, 8.5%), Gin(-4.9%, 0.9%), Rum(-5.6%, 2.1%), Scotch(-2.6%, 3.5%), Tequila(9.2%, 25.6%), and Vodka(-5.2%, 1.3%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

July’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -2.1%. Pennsylvania (reporting -0.9% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-3.6%), Mississippi (-5.1%), Utah (-0.2%), Montgomery County Maryland (-6.3%), and Wyoming (-3.3%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 0.3%, slipping from June’s reported 0.6%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.