During January nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 10.9% over same period sales last year. Alabama(3.8%), Iowa(3.1%), Idaho(5.7%), Montgomery County Maryland(3.1%), Maine(10.0%), Michigan(31.8%), Mississippi(16.5%), Montana(5.9%), North Carolina(5.4%), Ohio(6.5%), Oregon(5.6%), Pennsylvania(11.2%), Utah(42.5%), Virginia(5.4%), Vermont(3.4%), West Virginia(8.7%), and Wyoming(4.0%) reported monthly growth rates for January exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rate for New Hampshire(-2.8%) fell short of matching its twelve-month trend. Control state rolling-twelve-month volume growth, 3.4%, was up from December’s reported 2.8%. Spirits volumes have grown 10.9% year-to-date compared to 2.1% a year ago.
January’s 10.9% growth rate is the highest reported growth rate for a January since 1999. During this period, the highest spirits growth rate reported by the Control States has been 11.3% during June 2004 and July 2008.
Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 13.4% during January while trending at 6.4% during the past twelve months. Idaho(8.5%), Montgomery County Maryland(4.0%), Maine(9.8%), Michigan(34.9%), Mississippi(21.4%), Montana(12.0%), North Carolina(9.3%), Ohio(10.8%), Oregon(7.5%), Pennsylvania(10.2%), Utah(41.7%), Virginia(8.1%), Vermont(7.7%), and West Virginia(13.2%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(6.3%), Iowa(3.9%), New Hampshire(-4.3%), and Wyoming(6.9%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 13.4% year-to-date compared to 4.5% last year.
Price/Mix for January is 2.5%, lagging December’s 3.0%.
January’s Control State spirits nine-liter case and shelf dollar growth rates were effected by reporting calendar anomalies in the Control States.
December 31 is among the strongest of the selling days during the last week of the strongest selling month of the year. Sales made on December 31, 2018 by some states, whose sales are booked using a fiscal rather than a calendar reporting period, were included in their January 2019 sales results. Because these same states included December 31, 2017 sales with those reported for December 2017, January 2019’s growth rate was artificially inflated.
Michigan, with 16% of Control States’ spirits nine-liter case volumes and 17% of Control States’ dollars, reported five weeks of sales this January versus four weeks of sales during January 2018, artificially inflating sales and skewing Control States results. Michigan had seven more selling days during this year’s January than during last year’s.
Utah, with 3% of Control States’ spirits nine-liter case volumes and 3% of Control States’ dollars, reported five weeks of sales this January versus four weeks of sales during January 2018, artificially inflating sales and skewing Control States results. Utah had six more selling days during this year’s January than during last year’s.
Overall, January 2019 had fourteen more selling days, 2.6% more, than last year’s January.
After equivalizing nine-liter spirits case sales with respect to selling-day variations, January’s volumetric growth is 6.0%, and rolling-twelve-month volume is up 3.2%. Likewise, after equivalizing shelf dollars, January’s shelf dollar growth rate is 8.0% with a twelve-month trend of 6.2%.
January’s equivalized Price/Mix is 2.0%.
Cocktails, with 2% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was January’s fastest growing category with 22.4% reported and a twelve-month trend of 7.4%. Tequila, with 6% share was a close second, reported 20.2% monthly growth with a 9.9% twelve-month trend. Vodka, with 35% share, grew during the same periods at 11.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(8.3%), Canadian Whiskey(10.1%), Cocktails(22.4), Cordials(9.9%), Domestic Whiskey(10.1%), Gin(6.9%), Irish Whiskey(17.6%), Rum(9.0%), Scotch(5.9%), Tequila(20.2%), and Vodka(11.4%) grew at rates above their twelve-month trends.
January’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was 6.3%. Pennsylvania (reporting 5.6% nine-liter case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-4.5%), Utah (36.5%), Mississippi (13.4%), Montgomery County Maryland (1.9%), and Wyoming (-0.8%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states was -0.9%, up from December’s reported -1.9%.
|
9L Cases |
Shelf $ |
Price/Mix |
Control States |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total Control States |
10.9 | 13.4 | 2.5% |
|
|
Central Region |
15.2 |
17.7 |
2.5% |
IA, MD, MI, OH, PA, WV |
|
NE Region |
1.4 |
0.8 |
-0.6% |
ME, NH, VT |
|
NW Region |
12.0 |
14.4 |
2.4% |
ID, MT, OR, UT, WY |
|
Southern Region |
6.5 |
9.5 |
3.0% |
AL, MS, NC, VA |
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ABOUT NABCA
Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Alexandria, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.