Control State Results for March 2022

During March nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew -0.6% over same period sales last year. Montgomery County Maryland(15.7%), Utah(30.3%), Vermont(3.0%), and Wyoming(3.7%) reported monthly growth rates for March exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama(3.3%), Iowa(-0.5%), Idaho(-3.1%), Maine(-1.9%), Michigan(-2.3%), Mississippi(-7.5%), Montana(2.9%), New Hampshire(-11.8%), North Carolina(0.4%), Ohio(-2.9%), Oregon(-2.2%), Pennsylvania(0.6%), Virginia(-1.23%), and West Virginia(-1.5%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 3.5%, is down from February’s reported 3.8%. Spirits’ volumes growth is down -0.2% year-to-date compared to 4.2% a year ago.

Control state spirits shelf dollars are up 1.7% during March while trending at 7.8% during the past twelve months. Utah(29.8%) reported a monthly growth rate for March exceeding its twelve-month trend. Alabama(3.6%), Iowa(0.5%), Idaho(0.7%), Maine(2.3%), Montgomery County Maryland(15.2%), Michigan(0.3%), Mississippi(-0.4%), Montana(3.4%), New Hampshire(-15.0%), North Carolina(6.1%), Ohio(-0.5%), Oregon(3.0%), Pennsylvania(-0.1%), Virginia(0.3%), Vermont(7.4%), West Virginia(-0.3%), and Wyoming(4.7%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 2.9% year-to-date compared to being up 12.0% last March.

Price/Mix for March is 2.3%, slipping from February’s reported 3.9%.

Price/Mix is calculated using dollar growth and nine-liter case growth of current month over same period last year results. For the first time in 24 months, March’s Price/Mix has been at, or below, its pre-COVID average of 2.3%. Since April 2020, Price/Mix calculations have yielded values significantly higher than the pre-COVID average, including an all-time high of 10.6% during April 2021. The data suggest the historic Price/Mix values experienced during the period April 2020 through February 2022 were driven by premiumization and pricing actions.

March’s control states growth rate was affected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related residual phenomena.

• Utah, with 3% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 30 daysthe March compared to 24 days last year, artificially inflating sales and skewing controlstate results. Utah had six additional selling days during this year’s March.
• On net, there were 6 more selling days during March in the control states, 1% more,compared to last year,
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s March, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is -1.2% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 3.1% and YTDgrowth of -0.3%. March’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 1.2% with a rolling-twelve-monthtrend of 7.4% and YTD growth of 2.9%.
• Equivalized price/mix for March is 2.4%.

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was March’s fastest growing category with 30.4% reported and a twelve-month trend of 35.9%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 14.1% during March and 21.2% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(-24.1% during March, -11.5% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey(-3.6%, -1.2%), Cocktails(30.4%, 35.9%), Cordials(0.3%, 9.2%), Domestic Whiskey(1.1%, 3.1%), Gin(-3.8%, -0.2%), Irish Whiskey(0.7%, 12.8%), Rum(-2.5%, 0.5%), Scotch(-7.9%, 0.6%), Tequila(14.1%, 21.2%), and Vodka(-1.2%, 1.1%) all grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

March’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -3.7%. Pennsylvania (reporting -7.6% nineliter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-7.3%), Mississippi (-2.3%), Utah (22.7%), Montgomery County Maryland (2.0%), and Wyoming (-2.8%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelvemonth wine volume growth in these six control states is –3.7%, improving upon February’s reported -4.6%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.