Control State Results for May 2022

During May nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew -1.2% over same period sales last year under the influence of a tough comp (7.9%). In the control states, four of the first five months of 2022 have had negative month over month-last-year growth. Iowa(3.5%), Maine(3.4%), Montana(3.5%), West Virginia(3.0%), and Wyoming(0.8%) reported monthly growth rates for May exceeding their twelve-month growth trends. The growth rates for Alabama(2.8%), Idaho(-2.7%), Montgomery County Maryland(9.7%), Michigan(-3.9%), Mississippi(-4.2%), North Carolina(-2.6%), New Hampshire(-8.4%), Ohio(-2.8%), Oregon(-3.4%), Pennsylvania(2.4%), Utah(4.2%), Virginia(-3.1%), and Vermont(2.5%) fell short of their twelve-month growth trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 1.4%, is down from April’s reported 2.2%. Spirits’ volumes growth is -0.7% year-to-date compared to 7.5% a year ago.

Control state spirits shelf dollars are up 0.2% during May while trending at 4.8% during the past twelve months. Iowa(6.5%), Maine(10.7%), Montana(10.6%), and West Virginia(7.0%) reported monthly growth rates for May exceeding their twelve-month growth trends. Alabama(3.0%), Idaho(1.2%), Montgomery County Maryland(8.3%), Michigan(-5.1%), Mississippi(3.5%), North Carolina(2.7%), New Hampshire(-6.3%), Ohio(-1.3%), Oregon(1.3%), Pennsylvania(-1.0%), Utah(3.6%), Virginia(0.4%), Vermont(3.3%), and Wyoming(-0.1%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 1.9% year-to-date compared to being up 15.5% last May.

Price/Mix for May is 1.4%, down from April’s reported 2.5%.

During the Pre-COVID period, which ended February 2020, the on-premise marketplace in the control states averaged 18.0% share of the 9-liter case spirits market. Beginning March 2020, the control states’ on- and off-premise markets moved capriciously as opposed to their historically consistent, periodic behavior. During May 2022 the on-premise share of the control state spirits market, 18.3%, improved upon its year ago comp, 16.1%, but lagged May’s historical Pre-COVID average, 19.2%. 

The on-premise market in the control states grew at 11.7% this May compared to May’s pre-COVID average growth rate of 3.3%, suggesting that the on-premise marketplace’s recovery is continuing.

May’s on-premise 0.9% share shortfall, actual share compared to May’s pre-COVID average share, amounts to more than 46,000 9-liter cases. The on-premise shares of the control state market during the period March, 2020 through May, 2022 are: 18.5%, 18.8%, 9.5%, 0.9%, 3.7%, 10.2%, 10.6%, 11.3%, 12.3%, 12.4%, 9.2%, 6.3%, 9.9%, 12.4%, 15.4%, 16.3, 16.1%, 17.2%, 17.0%, 17.6, 17.2%, 16.6%, 15.4%, 13.5%, 15.4%, 17.7, 19.3%, 18.9%, and 18.3 respectively. 

May’s control states growth rate was minimally affected by calendar anomalies.

• Six control states (Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming) report calendar month sales and are wholesale only, i.e., they have no state stores or agencies. Michigan is also wholesale only but reports four- or five-week fiscal period sales. These seven states ship to licensees Monday through Friday
• NABCA reports shipments from the warehouses as sales for all wholesale only control states. This May’s calendar had twenty-one shipping days compared to twenty last year, 5% more.
• On net, in the control states, May this year had the same number of selling days as May last year. However, rolling-twelve-month and YTD growth rates are calculated using reporting periods with comps that can, and usually, have unequal numbers of selling days. 
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s May, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is -1.2% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 1.5% and YTD growth of -0.6%. May’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 0.3% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 4.9% and YTD growth of 2.1%.
• Equivalized price/mix for May is 1.5%.

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was May’s fastest growing category with 36.3% reported and a twelve-month trend of 35.5%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 5.5% during May and 15.8% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -2.2% and -0.4%, respectively. Cocktails(36.3.0% during May, 35.5% twelve-month trend) grew at a rate exceeding its twelve-month growth trend. Brandy/Cognac(-16.4%, -14.8%), Canadian Whiskey(-2.6%, -2.1%), Cordials(-3.1%, 4.4%), Domestic Whiskey(-0.2%, 1.5%), Gin(-7.5%, -2.6%), Irish Whiskey(0.2%, 7.9%), Rum(-5.5%, -1.9%), Scotch(-7.2%, -2.4%), Tequila(5.5%, 15.8%), and Vodka(-2.2%, -0.4%) grew at rates below their twelve-month growth trends.

May’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -3.6%. Pennsylvania (reporting -2.8% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-6.4%), Mississippi (-2.0%), Utah (-4.8%), Montgomery County Maryland (-2.4%), and Wyoming (-7.0%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –5.3%, slightly improving upon April’s reported -5.7%.