During November nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 4.0% over same period sales last year, a modest growth rate opposite a weak comp(2.8%) but propped up by calendar anomalies. Alabama(7.6%), Iowa(14.1%), Montgomery County Maryland(17.6%), Maine(5.0%), Mississippi(24.7%), North Carolina(6.8%), Ohio(7.2%), Oregon(3.5%), Utah(5.5%), and West Virginia(7.8%) reported monthly growth rates for November exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Idaho(1.1%), Michigan(-2.7%), Montana(7.5%), New Hampshire(-5.3%), Pennsylvania(3.6%), Virginia(-2.6%), Vermont(1.1%), and Wyoming(-0.1%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 4.6%, is flat with October’s reported 4.5%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 4.6% year-to-date compared to 8.1% a year ago.

November’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the fourth highest (tied with Aug 2021 and Oct 2021) recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (5.3, 5.3, 5.5%, 5.3%, 5.4%, 5.6%) are higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (4.5, 4.6%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 3.5%). The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% suggests that the last six 3-year growth periods are above average. During October, the 3-year CAGR, a long-term growth rate, and the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate, a short-term growth rate, crossed; during Oct and Nov the 3-year CAGR was greater than the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate for the first time in 35 months. Sales are generally more brisk during periods when short term rates exceed long term rates.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 8.3% during November while trending at 9.9% during the past twelve months. Iowa(19.1%), Montgomery County Maryland(21.8%), Maine(10.9%), Mississippi(27.9%), Montana(14.3%), North Carolina(14.5%), Ohio(13.7%), Oregon(10.2%), Vermont(7.1%), and West Virginia(15.2%) reported monthly growth rates for November exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(9.3%), Idaho(6.5%), Michigan(-0.3%),New Hampshire(0.4%), Pennsylvania(7.2%), Utah(7.3%), Virginia(1.1%), and Wyoming(2.0%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 9.9% year-to-date compared to 13.8% last November.

Price/Mix for November is 4.3%, up from October’s reported 3.5%.

Premiumization continues to sustain Price/Mix values calculated for the control states at levels above those calculated pre-COVID (2.3%). During November, the twelve-month growth rates for Ultra-Premium, Super-Premium, Premium, and Value spirits products were 19%, 12%, 4%, and -3%, respectively. November’s median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set retail price points continued to be reported at historically high levels; the median price was $25.04, and the weighted average price was $18.06. During 2020’s November these prices were $24.96 and $17.20, respectively. 

November’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related residual phenomena.

  • Six control states (Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming) report calendar month sales and are wholesale only, i.e., they have no state stores or agencies. Michigan is also wholesale only but reports four- or five-week fiscal period sales. These seven states ship to licensees Monday through Friday. NABCA reports shipments from the warehouses as sales for all wholesale only control states. This November’s calendar had twenty-one shipping days compared to twenty last year, 5% more
  • Retail outlets selling spirits in five states—Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Utah—are closed Sundays. This year’s November had four Sundays compared to five last year.
  • On net, there were 4 more selling days during November in the control states, almost 1% more, compared to last year. 
  • After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s November, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 3.1% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 3.4% and YTD growth of 3.9%. November’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 7.3% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 8.6% and YTD growth of 9.1%.
  • Equivalized price/mix for November is 4.2%.

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was November’s fastest growing category with 35.5% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.8%. Tequila, with 9% share, grew at 30.3% during November and 22.7% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. Gin(2.8% during November, -0.3% twelve-month trend), Tequila(30.3%, 22.7%), and Vodka(1.5%, 0.5%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends, while those reported for Brandy/Cognac(-12.8%, -3.6%), Canadian Whiskey(0.5%, 1.1%), Cocktails(35.5%, 38.8%), Cordials(9.9%, 11.1%), Domestic Whiskey(1.5%, 4.8%), Irish Whiskey(10.1%, 14.0%), Rum(0.2%, 0.7%), and Scotch(-1.1%, 1.5%) fell short.

November’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -6.0%. Pennsylvania (reporting -10.6% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-2.4%), Mississippi (20.1%), Utah (-2.2%), Montgomery County Maryland (2.6%), and Wyoming (-4.8%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –2.6%, down from October’s reported -1.8%.

 

 

 

9L Cases CM% Change

Shelf $CM % Chg

Price/Mix

Control States

Total Control States 

4.0

8.3

4.3%

 

Central Region 

3.7

7.4

3.7%

 IA, MD, MI, OH, PA, WV

NE Region 

-1.4

4.5

5.9%

 ME, NH, VT

NW Region 

3.7

9.1

5.4%

 ID, MT, OR, UT, WY

Southern Region 

6.0

10.1

4.1%

 AL, MS, NC, VA

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.