During October nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew -0.9% over same period sales last year, a depressed growth rate that was influenced by an imposing comp(13.9%) and calendar anomalies. Montgomery County Maryland(7.7%), New Hampshire(3.3%), and West Virginia(2.8%) reported monthly growth rates for October exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama(0.6%), Iowa(-1.3%), Idaho(-2.3%), Maine(-5.1%), Michigan(-6.0%), Mississippi(-2.7%), Montana(-6.8%), North Carolina(0.1%), Ohio(-0.8%), Oregon(-2.9%), Pennsylvania(7.6%), Utah(-14.9%), Virginia(0.6%), Vermont(-0.7%), and Wyoming(-2.3%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 4.5%, fell from September’s reported 5.7%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 4.7% year-to-date compared to 8.7% a year ago.

October’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the fourth highest (tied with Aug 2021) recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (5.3, 5.5%, 5.3%, 5.4%, 5.6%, 5.2%) are higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (4.6%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 3.5%, 3.4%). The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% suggests that the last six 3-year growth periods are above average. During October, the 3-year CAGR, a long-term growth rate, and the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate, a short-term growth rate, crossed; the 3-year CAGR is now greater than the rolling-12-month-trend growth rate for the first time in 34 months. Sales are generally more brisk during periods when short term rates exceed long term rates.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 2.6% during October while trending at 9.8% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland(12.4%) and New Hampshire(14.2%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(2.8%), Iowa(1.1%), Idaho(2.5), Maine(-0.6%), Michigan(-5.0%), Mississippi(1.5%), Montana(-3.1%), North Carolina(6.6%), Ohio(2.3%), Oregon(3.3%), Pennsylvania(9.5%), Utah(-11.8%), Virginia(4.6%), Vermont(2.1%), West Virginia(-1.5%), and Wyoming(5.7%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 10.3% year-to-date compared to 14.8% last October.

Price/Mix for October is 3.5%, up from September’s reported 2.4%.

October’s Price/Mix, 3.5%, has moderated from the eye-popping values of May 2020 through June 2021 (5.9%, 6.6%, 9.5%, 8.0%, 8.6%, 8.5%, 4.8%, 5.4%, 7.0%, 6.8%, 9.2%, 10.6%, 6.0%, 5.1%), suggesting Price/Mix is coming in line with pre-COVID averages (2.3%). However, premiumization continues to sustain the Price/Mix values calculated for the control states. During October 2021, the median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set retail price points continued to be reported at historically high levels; the median price was $24.99, and the weighted average price was $17.95. During 2020’s October these prices were $24.95 and $17.19, respectively. 

October’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related residual phenomena.

  • Michigan, with 15% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 30 days this October compared to 31 days last year, artificially deflating sales and skewing control state results.  Michigan had one fewer selling day during this year’s October.
  • Utah, with 3% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 23 days this October compared to 30 days last year, artificially deflating sales and skewing control state results. Utah had seven fewer selling days during this year’s October.
  • Six control states (Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming) report calendar month sales and are wholesale only, i.e., they have no state stores or agencies. Michigan is also wholesale only but reports four- or five-week fiscal period sales. These seven states ship to licensees Monday through Friday. NABCA reports shipments from the warehouses as sales for all wholesale only control states. This October’s calendar had twenty-one shipping days compared to twenty-two last year, 4.5% fewer.
  • Retail outlets selling spirits in five states—Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Utah—are closed Sundays. This year’s October had five Sundays compared to four last year.
  • On net, there were 12 fewer selling days during October in the control states, 2% fewer, compared to last year.
  • After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s October, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 1.4% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 3.6% and YTD growth of 4.0%. October’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 4.9% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 8.9% and YTD growth of 9.3%.
  • Equivalized price/mix for October is 3.6%.

Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was October’s fastest growing category with 37.8% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.6%. Tequila, with 8% share, grew at 15.3% during October and 21.6% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -1.9% and 0.3%, respectively. All categories grew at rates below their twelve-month trends: Brandy/Cognac(-13.3% during October, -2.2% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey(-5.0%, 1.3%), Cocktails(37.8%, 38.6%), Cordials(0.9%, 10.4%), Domestic Whiskey(-3.0%, 5.3%), Gin(-6.2%, -0.7%), Irish Whiskey(3.6%, 12.9%), Rum(-4.0%, 0.6%), Scotch(-6.4%, 0.9%), Tequila(15.3%, 21.6%), and Vodka(-1.9%, 0.3%).

October’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -8.9%. Pennsylvania (reporting -8.6% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-7.4%), Mississippi (3.9%), Utah (-21.8%), Montgomery County Maryland (-13.2%), and Wyoming (-11.6%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is –1.8%, down from September’s reported -0.4%.

 

 

9L Cases CM% Change

Shelf $CM % Chg

Price/Mix

Control States

Total Control States 

-0.9

2.6

3.5%

 

Central Region 

-0.3

1.2

1.5%

 IA, MD, MI, OH, PA, WV

NE Region 

0.4

8.5

8.1%

 ME, NH, VT

NW Region 

-5.6

-0.3

5.3%

 ID, MT, OR, UT, WY

Southern Region 

0.0

4.7

4.7%

 AL, MS, NC, VA

Click to view charts

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.