Control State Results for September 2020

During September nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 17.9% over same period sales last year. Alabama(20.0%), Iowa(27.0%), Idaho(20.5%), Maine(26.7%), Michigan(31.0%), Mississippi(34.5%), Montana(28.8%), North Carolina(21.1%), New Hampshire(13.0%), Ohio(15.0%), Oregon(10.5%), Pennsylvania(7.3%), Virginia(12.8%), and Vermont(10.0%) reported monthly growth rates for September exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Montgomery County Maryland(-1.5%), Utah(5.5%), West Virginia(5.4%), and Wyoming(6.2%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 6.9%, improved upon August’s reported 5.9%. Spirits volumes are growing 8.1% year-to-date compared to 3.8% a year ago.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 26.4% during September while trending at 11.5% during the past twelve months. Alabama(27.0%), Iowa(30.7%), Idaho(28.9%), Maine(32.1%), Michigan(46.0%), Mississippi(44.3%), Montana(36.4%), North Carolina(30.0%), New Hampshire(22.1%), Ohio(27.8%), Oregon(16.2%), Pennsylvania(12.1%), Virginia(20.8%), and Vermont(14.3%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Montgomery County Maryland(3.3%), Utah(8.0%), West Virginia(-2.4%), and Wyoming(7.3%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 13.6% year-to-date compared to 6.4% last year.

September’s 17.9% nine-liter case growth rate and 26.4% shelf dollar growth rate are the highest ever reported by the control states.
 
Price/Mix for September is 8.5%, up from August’s reported 7.9%. 

Price/Mix has been tracked by NABCA since January 2002, and September’s 8.5% is the second-highest Price/Mix published. Price/Mix for May (5.9%), June (6.5%), July (9.3%), August (7.9%), and September (8.5%) are the five highest values reported by the control states. An analysis of control state spirits prices suggests that historically high control state Price/Mix continues to be driven by premiumization. The weighted average, average, and median prices for 750 ML volumes of the 35,705 spirits SKUs sold in Alabama, Idaho, Montgomery County Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont during September were $17.15, $37.76, and $24.87, respectively. This median price, $24.87, is the highest on record. A graph of control state prices with their median and weighted average suggests volume sales skew toward value products in the control states, whereas a graph of prices with their median and (non-weighted) average prices suggests product pricing in the control states skews toward premium.  

During March, April, May, June, July, and August the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. September is no exception. During the twelve-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly spirits share averaged 82%. The off-premise monthly shares of the control state market during March-September were 90%, 99%, 96%, 90%, 89%, 89%, and 88%, respectively. This sequence suggests that after the on-premise marketplace was devastated by the arrival of COVID-19, it is slowly recovering. Trends suggest the control state off-premise share for October will be above historical levels as the recovery continues.  

September’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related phenomena.

• Michigan, with 16% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 32 days this September compared to 30 days last September, artificially inflating sales and skewing control state results.
• Michigan had two more selling days during this year’s September.
• Retail outlets selling spirits in five states—Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Utah—are closed Sundays. This year’s September had four Sundays compared to five last year.
• Six states—Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming—report monthly warehouse depletions as sales. This year’s September had 21 shipping days compared to 20 last year.
• Labor Day this year was celebrated on September 7. Sales during the month leading up to Labor Day (September 1-6) were booked during September. Labor Day last year was celebrated on September 2. Sales leading up to Labor Day (August 27-31, September 1) were booked mostly during August. September’s sales this year were inflated by this calendar oddity. 
• On net, there were seven more selling days during September in the control states, 1.4% more, compared to last year.
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s September, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 15.4% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 7.9%. September’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 23.6% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 12.6%.
• Equivalized price/mix for September is 8.2%.

Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was September’s fastest growing category with 59.3% reported and a twelve-month trend of 34.6%. Tequila, with 7% share, grew during September at 40.2% and 18.6% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 33% share, grew during the same periods at 11.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(34.9% during September, 12.5% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey(12.4%, 5.6%), Cocktails(59.3%, 34.6%), Cordials(18.3%, 2.8%), Domestic Whiskey(21.7%, 11.0%), Gin(10.0%, 1.7%), Irish Whiskey(20.9%, 5.5%), Rum(13.1%, 2.2%), Scotch(12.6%, 1.7%), Tequila(40.2%, 18.6%), and Vodka(11.2%, 3.7%) grew at rates above their twelve-month trends.

September’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was 7.7%. Pennsylvania (reporting 4.4% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (11.1%), Mississippi (31.5%), Utah (2.3%), Montgomery County Maryland (4.3%), and Wyoming (7.5%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 1.7%, up from August’s reported 1.1%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.