Control State Results for September 2021

During September nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 4.0% over same period sales last year, a noteworthy growth rate measured against its Himalayan comp(17.9%).

Alabama(8.3%), Montgomery County Maryland(13.6%), Michigan(3.0%), Mississippi(1.8%), Oregon(1.7%), Utah(34.2%), Vermont(5.1%), West Virginia(4.0%), and Wyoming(10.3%) reported monthly growth rates for September exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Iowa(-5.2%), Idaho(-2.2%), Maine(1.0%), Montana(0.0%), North Carolina(4.3%), New Hampshire(-5.9%), Ohio(2.8%), Pennsylvania(10.0%), and Virginia(2.6%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 5.7%, fell from August’s reported 6.7%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 5.3% year-to-date compared to 8.1% a year ago.

September’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.5%, is the second highest recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (5.2%, 5.2%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 5.3%, 5.5%) are strikingly higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (3.5%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.9%, 4.3%). The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% demonstrates that the last six 3-year growth periods are significantly above the average.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 6.4% during September while trending at 11.4% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland(16.4%), Utah(35.8%), Vermont(9.3%), West Virginia(8.0%), and Wyoming(12.2%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(8.5%), Iowa(-2.9%), Idaho(1.5%), Maine(4.0%), Michigan(4.4%), Mississippi(0.4%), Montana(2.9%), North Carolina(10.1%), New Hampshire(-5.6%), Ohio(5.5%), Oregon(6.0%), Pennsylvania(9.8%), and Virginia(6.1%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 11.0% year-to-date compared to 13.6% last September. Price/Mix for September is 2.4%, slipping from August’s reported 2.7%.

September’s Price/Mix, 2.4%, has moderated from the eye-popping values of May 2020 through June 2021 (5.9%, 6.6%, 9.5%, 8.0%, 8.6%, 8.5%, 4.8%, 5.4%, 7.0%, 6.8%, 9.2%, 10.6%, 6.0%, 5.1%). Its value is coming in line with pre-COVID averages (2.3%). However, premiumization continues to sustain the Price/Mix values calculated for the control states. During September 2021, the median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set retail price points continued to be reported at historically high levels; the median price was $24.99, and the weighted average price was $17.59. During 2020’s September these prices were $24.87 and $17.16, respectively. 

September’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar anomalies and pandemic related residual phenomena.

• Michigan, with 15% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 33 days this September compared to 32 days last year, artificially inflating sales growth and skewing control state results.  Michigan had one more selling day during this year’s September.
• Utah, with 3% of control state nine-liter-case spirits volume, reported sales for 29 days this September compared to 24 days last year, artificially inflating sales growth and skewing control state results. Utah had five more selling days during this year’s September. On net, there were 6 more selling days during September in the control states, 1% more, compared to last year.
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this and last year’s September, the nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 3.1% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 4.5% and YTD growth of 4.3%. September’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 5.5% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 10.2% and YTD growth of 9.9%.
• Equivalized price/mix for September is 2.4%.

Cocktails, with 4% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was September’s fastest growing category with 54.6% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.8%. Tequila, with 8% share, grew at 20.1% during September and 23.4% during the past twelve months. Irish Whiskey, with 2% share, grew during September at 13.1% and 14.2% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at 2.0% and 1.0%, respectively. Cocktails(54.6% during September, 38.8% twelve-month trend), Gin(0.6%, 0.4%), Rum(1.6%, 1.5%), and Vodka(2.0%, 1.0%) grew at rates above their twelve-month trends, while Brandy/Cognac(-20.9%, 0.8%), Canadian Whiskey(1.8%, 2.8%), Cordials(7.7%, 11.7%), Domestic Whiskey(4.0%, 6.9%), Irish Whiskey(13.1%, 14.2%), Scotch(-0.6%, 2.4%), and Tequila(20.1%, 23.4%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

September’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -2.9%. Pennsylvania (reporting -5.7% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-7.6%), Mississippi (-1.8%), Utah (26.8%), Montgomery County Maryland (-3.8%), and Wyoming (-5.2%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is -0.4%, down from August’s reported 0.3%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.