During August nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 2.2%, a perfunctory growth rate unaffected by an innocuous comp(1.8%), over same period sales last year. Montgomery County Maryland(11.1%), Maine(11.3%), Utah(5.4%), and Vermont(3.5%) reported monthly growth rates for August exceeding their twelve-month trends. The growth rates for Alabama(3.2%), Iowa(4.3%), Idaho(-1.3%), Michigan(-2.9%), Mississippi(-3.6%), Montana(8.5%), North Carolina(0.6%), New Hampshire(-2.1%), Ohio(2.2%), Oregon(-0.4%), Pennsylvania(10.1%), Virginia(0.6%), West Virginia(0.1%), and Wyoming(-1.7%) fell short of their twelve-month trends. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 6.7%, was flat with July’s reported 6.7%. Spirits’ volumes are growing 5.5% year-to-date compared to 6.9% a year ago.

August’s 3-year CAGR of rolling-twelve-month 9-liter case volumes, 5.3%, is the third highest recorded 3-year growth period in the control states during the 21st century. 3-year CAGRs calculated for the past six rolling-twelve-month periods (4.8%, 5.2%, 5.2%, 5.6%, 5.4%, 5.3%) are strikingly higher than those calculated for their year ago counterparts (3.2%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.9%). The 21-year control state CAGR of 3.1% demonstrates that the last six 3-year growth periods are significantly above the average.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 4.9% during August while trending at 12.9% during the past twelve months. Montgomery County Maryland(12.2%), Maine(15.0%), and Utah(10.0%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Alabama(3.7%), Iowa(8.0%), Idaho(2.8%), Michigan(-0.2%), Mississippi(-1.2%), Montana(10.5%), North Carolina(6.0%), New Hampshire(0.5%), Ohio(5.0%), Oregon(4.1%), Pennsylvania(10.2%), Vermont(7.4%), Virginia(5.3%), West Virginia(1.9%), and Wyoming(-1.4%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 11.6% year-to-date compared to 12.0% last August.

Premiumization continues to drive Price/Mix in the control states. During August 2021, the median and weighted average prices of 750 ML spirits volumes sold in those control states that set the retail price point continued to be reported at historically high levels. During August, the median price was $24.99, and the weighted average price was $17.40. During last year’s August, these prices were $24.71 and $16.92, respectively.

Price/Mix for August is 2.7%, down from July’s reported 3.2%.

Cocktails, with 3% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was August’s fastest growing category with 48.6% reported and a twelve-month trend of 38.5%. Tequila, with 8% share, grew at 14.1% during August and 24.9% during the past twelve months. Irish Whiskey, with 2% share, grew during August at 12.8% and 14.8% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 32% share, grew during the same periods at -0.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Cocktails(48.6 during August%, 38.5% twelve-month trend) grew at a rate above its twelve-month trend, while Brandy/Cognac(-9.4%, 5.1%), Canadian Whiskey(-3.2%, 3.6%), Cordials(5.5%, 12.5%), Domestic Whiskey(1.9%, 8.2%), Gin(-2.2%, 1.1%), Irish Whiskey(12.8%, 14.8%), Rum(-2.0%, 2.3%), Scotch(-2.7%, 3.4%), Tequila(14.1%, 24.9%), and Vodka(-0.1%, 1.7%) grew at rates below their twelve-month trends.

August’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was -4.0%. Pennsylvania (reporting -3.7% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (-4.0%), Mississippi (-10.8%), Utah (1.0%), Montgomery County Maryland (-2.5%), and Wyoming (-3.9%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 0.3%, flat with July’s reported 0.3%.
 

 

 

9L Cases CM% Change

Shelf $CM % Chg

Price/Mix

Control States

Total Control States 

2.2

4.9

2.7%

 

Central Region 

3.3

4.8

1.5%

 IA, MD, MI, OH, PA, WV

NE Region 

3.0

6.1

3.1%

 ME, NH, VT

NW Region 

1.4

5.1

4.3%

 ID, MT, OR, UT, WY

Southern Region 

0.5

4.6

4.1%

 AL, MS, NC, VA

Click to view charts

###

ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.