Control State Results for June 2020

During June nine-liter control states spirits case sales grew 13.1% over same period sales last year. Alabama(22.4%), Iowa(23.0%), Idaho(16.4%), Maine(17.9%), Michigan(10.3%), Mississippi(54.9%), Montana(23.4%), North Carolina(16.7%), New Hampshire(6.1%), Ohio(15.3%), Oregon(8.9%), Pennsylvania(-4.6%), Utah(17.0%), Virginia(9.6%), Vermont(10.8%), West Virginia(30.3%), and Wyoming(26.1%) reported monthly growth rates for June exceeding their twelve-month trends.

The growth rate for Montgomery County Maryland(-2.3%) fell short of its twelve-month trend. Control state rolling-twelve-month-volume growth, 5.1%, was up compared to May’s reported 4.0%. Spirits volumes grew 6.2% year-to-date compared to 3.3% a year ago.

During the past five years, December’s spirits sales volume in the control states has exceeded 5 million nine-liter cases. June’s reported nine-liter case spirits volume--5,054,718--is the first non-December month during which more than five million nine-liter cases have been reported.

Control state spirits shelf dollars were up 19.6% during June while trending at 8.1% during the past twelve months. Alabama(30.8%), Iowa(24.4%), Idaho(22.8%), Maine(19.4%), Michigan(23.3%), Mississippi(71.0%), Montana(25.3%), North Carolina(23.2%), Ohio(25.4%), Oregon(14.4%), Pennsylvania(0.6%), Utah(18.8%), Virginia(14.8%), Vermont(11.1%), West Virginia(32.5%), and Wyoming(26.8%) reported growth rates exceeding their twelve-month trends. Montgomery County Maryland(-1.5%) and New Hampshire(5.0%) grew shelf dollars at rates below their twelve-month trends. Shelf dollars in the control states are up 10.0% year-to-date compared to 6.1% last year.

Price/Mix for June is 6.5%, improving upon May’s reported 5.9%. 

Price/Mix has been tracked by NABCA since January 2002, and July’s 6.5% is the largest Price/Mix value published, ever. The previous highest value, 5.9%, was recorded during May 2020.

During March, April, May, and June the control states’ on- and off-premise markets behaved capriciously. During the twelve-month period ending February 2020, the off-premise monthly share averaged 82%. During March, the off-premise share jumped to 90%, during April to 99%, and during May retreated to 96%. During June it moderated, somewhat, to 90%. Trends suggest the control state off-premise share for July will be elevated above historical levels.  

June’s control states growth rate was effected by calendar and operational anomalies as well as pandemic related social phenomena.

• The retail outlets in five control states—Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Utah—are closed Sundays. June this year had four Sundays compared to five last year.
• Seven control states—Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, Wyoming—are wholesale-only states that do not have their own stores. Sales in these states are warehouse depletions to retailers and, in some cases, to on-premise licensees. June 2019 had twenty weekdays for shipping whereas June 2020 had twenty-two, 10% more.
• Mississippi reported a growth rate of 54.9% for June. This growth rate was effected by a change in the State’s billing and order processing procedures that resulted in some July orders being booked with June effective dates.
• On net, there were eight more selling days during June in the control states, 1.5% more, compared to last year.
• After equivalizing selling-day variations between this year’s June and last year’s, June’s nine-liter-case-spirits growth rate is 11.6% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 6.2%. June’s shelf-dollar growth rate is 18.2% with a rolling-twelve-month trend of 9.3%.
• Equivalized price/mix for June is 6.6%.

Cocktails, with 2% share of the nine-liter case control states spirits market, was June’s fastest growing category with 61.9% reported and a twelve-month trend of 26.2%. Tequila, with 7% share, grew during June at 31.6% and 13.0% during the past twelve months. Vodka, with 34% share, grew during the same periods at 6.4% and 3.4%, respectively. Brandy/Cognac(23.7% during June, 6.3% twelve-month trend), Canadian Whiskey(13.3%, 4.4%), Cocktails(61.9%, 26.2%), Cordials(13.6%, 1.2%), Domestic Whiskey(15.3%, 9.3%), Gin(6.1%, 1.0%), Irish Whiskey(6.0%, 4.6%), Rum(8.2%, 0.7%), Scotch(4.7%, 0.9%), Tequila(31.6%, 13.0%), and Vodka(6.4%, 3.4%) all grew at rates above their twelve-month trends.

June’s nine-liter wine case sales growth rate was 5.7%. Pennsylvania (reporting -2.0% nine-liter-case growth for wines), New Hampshire (11.3%), Utah (9.7%), Mississippi (42.9%), Montgomery County Maryland (3.6%), and Wyoming (16.0%) are the control states that are the sole wholesalers of wines and spirits within their geographical boundaries. Rolling-twelve-month wine volume growth in these six control states is 0.8%, up from May’s reported -0.1%.

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ABOUT NABCA

Established in 1938, NABCA is the national association representing the Control State Systems - those jurisdictions that directly control the distribution and sale of beverage alcohol within their borders. Headquartered in Arlington, VA, NABCA’s mission is to support member jurisdictions in their efforts to protect public health and safety and assure responsible and efficient systems for beverage alcohol distribution and sales. For more information about the NABCA, visit www.nabca.org.